James Check says Bitcoin drop to $40,000 would be a statistical outlier

5 articles · Updated · CoinDesk · Apr 25

Check notes that a fall to $40,000 would place Bitcoin in the 0.4th percentile of historical price deviations, far below its current $78,000 level and representing a 70% drop from its all-time high.
He compares such a move to Bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011, emphasizing its rarity. Despite recent 15% monthly gains, Bitcoin remains 40% below its record, with some forecasters still warning of deeper declines.
Check uses the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which averages multiple valuation metrics, to support his analysis. Meanwhile, institutional demand for cryptocurrencies like XRP remains strong, with ETF inflows and reduced selling pressure.

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