WMO expects El Nino to return by May, affecting global weather patterns
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Apr 24
WMO expects El Nino to return by May, affecting global weather patterns
14 articles · Updated · Reuters · Apr 24
The World Meteorological Organization reports sea-surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific are rising rapidly, indicating high confidence in El Nino developing between May and July 2026.
El Nino could intensify in the following months, disrupting rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, with increased rain in southern South America and drought in Australia and parts of Asia.
Earlier forecasts suggested a 70% chance of El Nino by June, possibly the strongest this century, with potential to push global temperatures above the 1.5°C threshold and trigger extreme weather events.
Forecasts predict both devastating droughts and floods. Which regions are most at risk this year?
A new index downplays El Niño's strength. Are we underestimating the real danger ahead?
Past super El Niños caused chaos. Are governments and communities better prepared this time around?
If climate forecasts can fail, how much confidence should we place in these dire warnings?
With 2027 potentially the hottest year ever, what irreversible climate tipping points could be triggered?
How will this super El Niño impact global food supplies and the cost of your groceries?
Strong El Niño Expected in 2026: Climate Models Signal Record-Breaking Heat and Disruptions
Overview
As of April 2026, the ENSO system remains neutral, but strong westerly winds and a large pool of warm subsurface water in the tropical Pacific signal a high chance of El Niño developing by mid-year and peaking between October 2026 and February 2027. This event is expected to disrupt global weather patterns, causing wetter conditions and flood risks in the southern US, droughts and heatwaves in other regions, and suppressed Atlantic hurricanes alongside increased Pacific storms. Amplified by human-induced climate change, the 2026 El Niño could drive record global temperatures, worsen droughts and wildfires, reduce crop yields, and trigger sharp food price rises, heightening food insecurity worldwide. Proactive preparedness is essential to manage these cascading impacts.