Oxford Economics raises 2026 GCC inflation forecasts amid Iran war and Hormuz blockade
Updated
Updated · Arabian Gulf Business Insight · Apr 23
Oxford Economics raises 2026 GCC inflation forecasts amid Iran war and Hormuz blockade
4 articles · Updated · Arabian Gulf Business Insight · Apr 23
Bahraini inflation is now forecast at 2.1 percent, up 0.9 points, with other Gulf countries seeing 0.1–0.4 point increases. The near-total Hormuz closure disrupts oil, gas, and goods trade.
State price regulation on essentials and reduced economic activity are expected to offset some inflationary pressures, though non-essential goods and services may see sharper price rises, especially in deregulated markets like the UAE.
Disinflationary effects from weaker demand, declining tourism, and easing rents may temper overall inflation, while MENA oil importers face additional energy-driven inflation. Egypt’s annual inflation rose to 15.2 percent in March.
With inflation soaring and economies shrinking, what does the future hold for Gulf residents?
Beyond oil prices, how will this war permanently reshape global trade routes?
How can the US blockade succeed if Iran's oil revenue is actually increasing?
After attacks on its energy facilities, can Qatar recover its LNG export dominance?
As expats flee and jobs are cut, what is the ultimate social cost of the conflict?
With its safe reputation shattered, can the Gulf's tourism industry ever recover?