Kevin Warsh confirmation as Federal Reserve chair probability nears 100 percent

11 articles · Updated · The Wall Street Journal · Apr 24

Betting site Kalshi now shows nearly 100% probability Warsh will be confirmed before May 15, up from 30% after the Justice Department ended its criminal investigation of Jerome Powell.
This development removes the main political barrier, as Senator Thom Tillis had withheld support until the probe concluded, and all Democrats refused to consider the nomination while it remained open.
Powell’s term ends May 15, though he may remain if no successor is confirmed; betting markets also show a 98% chance Warsh is confirmed by June 1.

Are markets overconfident in Warsh's confirmation before Senator Tillis officially gives his support?

Is Warsh's policy shift a genuine change or a strategy to secure his confirmation?

What are the long-term risks to the Fed's credibility after this contentious confirmation process?

How would Kevin Warsh's 'new inflation framework' change the fight against rising prices?

How might a former Fed Chair on the board influence the central bank’s independence?

Can AI's productivity boom really be harnessed to lower inflation under a new Fed chair?