The forecast, issued April 22, 2026, predicts a strong El Nino developing by July-August and a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole lagging by one month.
India’s June-September 2026 monsoon is expected to be mostly dry, with patchy wet regions due to +IOD interference, especially in southwest and northeast India, while central and southern regions face pronounced dryness.
Model projections vary on the strength of the +IOD, but most anticipate its presence throughout the season; the 2026 El Nino could rival historic events, intensifying climate variability and agricultural risk across India.
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