Democrats Seize Polling Leads in 4 Midwest Races as Senate Majority Path Still Narrows
Updated
Updated · Newsweek · Jul 24
Democrats Seize Polling Leads in 4 Midwest Races as Senate Majority Path Still Narrows
3 articles · Updated · Newsweek · Jul 24
Summary
VoteHub averages posted July 21 show Democrats now ahead in four key midterm contests after trailing Republicans in April: Iowa, Michigan and Ohio Senate races, plus Ohio’s governor race.
The biggest swing came in Michigan, where Republicans’ 1.9-point edge turned into a 1.8-point Democratic lead; Iowa moved from GOP +0.7 to Democrats +0.5, Ohio Senate from GOP +0.3 to Democrats +0.9, and Ohio governor from GOP +0.1 to Democrats +0.9.
Prediction markets are less uniformly bullish: Kalshi and Polymarket still favor Republicans in Iowa and the Ohio governor race, see Ohio’s Senate race as essentially even, and give Democrats about a 70% chance in Michigan.
The shift matters because Democrats need a net gain of 4 Senate seats in November, with holding Michigan and flipping Iowa and Ohio central to any path back to a Senate majority.