Updated
Updated · Financial Times · Jul 26
Bank of England Seen Holding Rates at 3.75% as Markets Still Price 1 Hike
Updated
Updated · Financial Times · Jul 26

Bank of England Seen Holding Rates at 3.75% as Markets Still Price 1 Hike

3 articles · Updated · Financial Times · Jul 26

Summary

  • Thursday’s Bank of England decision is expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged at 3.75%, extending a pause after recent inflation and labour data came in better than expected.
  • UK unemployment has held steady and wage growth is cooling, reducing immediate pressure for a move even as policymakers watch incoming data closely.
  • Markets still expect at least one rate increase before year-end because the longer-term outlook has grown less certain with renewed US-Iran tit-for-tat fighting.
  • The BoE decision lands in a crowded week for central banks, with the Federal Reserve also seen holding and the Bank of Japan expected to continue policy normalisation.

Insights

With global inflation wildly uneven, might the Bank of Japan's gradual rate hikes trigger an unforeseen ripple effect across international markets?
Could escalating US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz force central banks to abruptly abandon their cautious interest rate pauses?
Will massive AI investments by Big Tech secure future dominance, or expose critical vulnerabilities amid shifting global consumer demand?