Bitcoin Stalls Near $64,000 as $2.5 Billion July 31 Options Bet Looks 9% Away

1 articles · Updated · CryptoSlate · Jul 26

$64,000 Bitcoin ended two straight weekly options expiries with little impact, undermining claims that July’s dense positioning was pinning price and leaving thin spot demand as the clearer explanation for the range.
$1.2 billion of Bitcoin options expired Friday on Deribit with max pain at $64,500, but Bitcoin closed at $64,140; exchange data showed sellers pressing the market, Coinbase flipping to a 0.088% discount and $45.9 million of longs liquidated.
$22.35 billion in futures and perpetual open interest rose even as Bitcoin fell 1.5%, suggesting new positions were added on the way down, while funding rates eased to 0.0038%, showing leverage stayed muted rather than overheated.
$2.5 billion in gross notional is tied to a July 31 call spread centered on $70,000-$72,000, yet Bitcoin must rally about 9% in six days and Deribit assigns only a 14.5% chance of even touching $70,000 this month.
July 31 also lands two days after the Fed decision and amid fading hopes for the CLARITY Act, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs just snapped a seven-session inflow streak with a $225.2 million outflow, reinforcing a market short on fresh buyers.