US Prediction Markets Draw $45 Billion in World Cup Trades as Sports-Betting Loophole Expands
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Jul 26
US Prediction Markets Draw $45 Billion in World Cup Trades as Sports-Betting Loophole Expands
1 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Jul 26
Summary
$45 billion in World Cup trading volume has flowed through US prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, which have surged by framing wagers as CFTC-regulated financial products rather than sports bets.
That growth has been helped by uneven state legalization after the 2018 Supreme Court ruling, letting the platforms operate around sports-betting bans in big states including California and Texas, whose combined economy is about $7 trillion.
Headline volumes overstate the cash actually at risk because contracts can be resold repeatedly; Eilers & Krejcik estimates real US World Cup stakes at about $5.6 billion a month.
In the UK, regulators say sports prediction markets would need a gambling licence and financial-event betting may already be banned, yet users can still access sites via VPNs, raising compliance concerns.
Analysts are split on whether the model will spread in Britain: some see risks to gambling controls and political integrity, while others argue UK sportsbooks still offer a better user experience.