Moody's Keeps Türkiye at Ba3, Sees 29% Inflation by End-2026

2 articles · Updated · Türkiye Today · Jul 25

Moody's completed its July 16 review of Türkiye without changing the sovereign rating or outlook, leaving the country at Ba3 with a stable outlook.
Ba3 is supported by Türkiye's large, diversified economy, low public debt and stronger policy execution since mid-2023, especially the central bank's anti-inflation framework.
29% inflation is now expected at end-2026, falling to 24% in 2027, with Moody's saying higher global energy prices since Middle East conflicts have complicated disinflation.
3.4% growth is projected for 2026, down from 3.6% in 2025, before a pickup in 2027 that Moody's links largely to fiscal stimulus ahead of elections the following year.
An upgrade would require durable macroeconomic stability, continued policy reforms and lower vulnerability to exchange-rate, inflation and external financing shocks.