El Niño Lifts 2026 Record-Heat Odds to 35%, Projects 2027 at 1.7C
Updated
Updated · Carbon Brief · Jul 24
El Niño Lifts 2026 Record-Heat Odds to 35%, Projects 2027 at 1.7C
1 articles · Updated · Carbon Brief · Jul 24
Summary
Carbon Brief raised the chance of 2026 becoming the warmest year on record to 35%, up from 19% in April, even as its central estimate still places 2026 as the second-warmest year at 1.51C above pre-industrial levels.
667 model runs drove that shift: El Niño reached “strong” status in June at 1.6C, topped 2C in early July, and 91% of runs now point to a peak above the previous modern-record event.
January-June 2026 was the third-warmest start to any year across six datasets, with May and June the second-warmest on record; nearly 9% of the world’s surface logged record June heat.
Western Europe posted its hottest June on record during a late-month heatwave that broke 10 national all-time records and about 400 long-record station records, with deaths estimated in the thousands.
2027 now looks even hotter because El Niño’s impact lags by months: Carbon Brief projects 1.71C above pre-industrial levels next year, implying a 92% chance of a new annual global temperature record.
If El Niño peaks above every recorded event, why do scientists think 2027—not 2026—could become the real global heat shock?
How could a 1.71C year in 2027 reshape heat deaths, drought, sea ice loss, and energy stress worldwide?
2026 El Niño Crisis: Unprecedented Heat, Socio-Economic Fallout, and the Race Against Irreversible Climate Change
Overview
The 2026 El Niño event rapidly emerged after a neutral ENSO phase, fueled by a huge buildup of subsurface Pacific heat. This, combined with ongoing human-driven climate warming, led to record-breaking sea and air temperatures by June 2026. The resulting heatwaves shattered national records across Europe and caused thousands of deaths worldwide, as extreme heat overwhelmed the human body. El Niño also disrupted global weather, intensifying storms in Brazil and weakening Asian monsoons, which triggered severe droughts and food price shocks. These events pushed global temperatures above 1.5°C, threatening irreversible ice sheet loss, rising sea levels, and dangerous climate feedback loops.