Betting Markets Cut SpaceX Nationalization Odds to 4% From 11% by 2027
Updated
Updated · The Motley Fool · Jul 24
Betting Markets Cut SpaceX Nationalization Odds to 4% From 11% by 2027
3 articles · Updated · The Motley Fool · Jul 24
Summary
Prediction markets now price about a 4% chance that the U.S. government nationalizes SpaceX by January 2027, down sharply from roughly 11% in August 2025.
That decline comes even as Washington has shown greater willingness to take stakes in strategic industries and as debate grows over public ownership of critical AI companies.
Bernie Sanders last month proposed an American AI sovereign wealth fund financed with a one-time 50% stock tax on major AI firms, explicitly naming xAI, SpaceX's AI division, as a possible target.
Trading volumes in these markets are limited and the contracts stop at January 2027, so the odds are only a rough gauge and do not rule out a later government stake in SpaceX or other AI-linked companies.
Could the push for government equity in AI transform tech giants into state-controlled entities, permanently altering the landscape of global innovation?
If AI relies on collective human knowledge, does a sovereign wealth fund truly return power to the public or merely centralize it?