IBM Slides 22% in a Month After Cutting 2026 Revenue Growth to 4%-5%
Updated
Updated · Trefis · Jul 24
IBM Slides 22% in a Month After Cutting 2026 Revenue Growth to 4%-5%
3 articles · Updated · Trefis · Jul 24
Summary
IBM shares have dropped about 22% over the past month and now trade roughly 37% below their 52-week high after second-quarter results missed expectations.
Management lowered full-year revenue growth guidance to 4% to 5% and said clients redirected capital spending, causing large deals to slip and raising questions about whether demand is delayed or weakening structurally.
IBM’s current business mix offers some cushion—software is nearly 45% of revenue, and about 80% of annual software revenue is recurring—while the z17 mainframe cycle is described as the strongest in reported history.
History still points to meaningful downside in a broader shock: IBM’s average peak-to-trough decline across 15 major market disruptions was 16%, and its worst drawdown was 37% during the 2020 crash.
Recovery can also be prolonged: IBM’s median rebound time after past shocks was about five months, but its slowest full recovery took 108 months after the 2013 taper tantrum.