Updated
Updated · TradingView · Jul 24
Lagarde Says Euro Zone Inflation Risks Stay High at 2.8% as ECB Sees Modest Growth Improvement
Updated
Updated · TradingView · Jul 24

Lagarde Says Euro Zone Inflation Risks Stay High at 2.8% as ECB Sees Modest Growth Improvement

3 articles · Updated · TradingView · Jul 24

Summary

  • Lagarde said recent data show some improvement in euro zone activity, with services partly recovering and digital services staying robust, but overall growth indicators still point to only modest expansion.
  • June inflation slowed to 2.8%, yet she warned energy shocks have not fully passed through and could keep inflation well above the ECB's target into the first half of 2027.
  • The ECB sees risks to growth tilted downward as higher energy prices squeeze real incomes, while inflation risks remain skewed upward from possible broader price spillovers, food shocks and geopolitical tensions.
  • September rate decisions will depend on incoming data, Lagarde said, adding policymakers have not seen second-round wage effects and that the latest decision was unanimous despite some debate over whether to hike.
  • EUR/USD held near 1.1378 through the press conference, reflecting a market still waiting for clearer policy direction as the pair remains stuck in a narrow 1.13616-1.1482 range since June 26.

Insights

With a new Middle East energy shock looming, is the ECB quietly preparing to abandon its 2027 inflation target?
Could unexpected AI wage compression be Europe's hidden shield against a devastating new inflation spiral?