Underdog Activates Aristotle Exchange, Chasing 2% U.S. Prediction Market Share

3 articles · Updated · Sportico · Jul 24

Underdog has started executing prediction-market bets directly through Aristotle Exchange, replacing its earlier role as a broker for third-party venues and giving it more control over product and pricing.
13 wager-type filings have already been approved by the CFTC, and CEO Jeremy Levine said the catalog should expand sharply by the fall to capture NFL-season demand.
A company graphic showed Underdog trailing only Kalshi and Robinhood in volume since September 2025, though Polymarket — fully launched in the U.S. only in March — is now handling up to eight times Underdog’s notional volume.
Underdog’s U.S. share is likely nearing 2%, a notable position after March layoffs aimed partly at shifting resources toward prediction markets and after a 2025 funding round valued the company at $1.23 billion pre-money.
Its edge may come from audience trust: sports-specific X accounts with followings above 200,000, led by Underdog NBA at 750,000, drive fast injury and roster updates that help convert fans into bettors.