Pantheon's Dutta Sees Fed Hiking on July 28 as Inflation Holds at 3.5%
Updated
Updated · Business Insider · Jul 24
Pantheon's Dutta Sees Fed Hiking on July 28 as Inflation Holds at 3.5%
2 articles · Updated · Business Insider · Jul 24
Summary
July 28 could bring a surprise Fed rate hike, Neil Dutta said, even though markets still assign a 66% chance the central bank holds steady this month.
Dutta argues inflation pressures remain too strong to wait: June CPI was 3.5% versus the Fed’s 2% target, with services inflation firming alongside tariffs, AI spending, a stable labor market and higher oil.
Brent crude topped $100 a barrel on Thursday as the US-Iran war intensified, helping push the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.7% and reviving inflation fears.
Kevin Warsh’s hawkish debut as Fed chair last month underpins the call, with Dutta saying an earlier move would give policymakers more flexibility than waiting for a widely expected September hike.
Markets still lean toward September, with CME FedWatch showing a 57% chance of a hike then and a 79% chance by October that rates have risen once or twice from the current 3.5%-3.75% range.