ECB Lifts 2026 Core Inflation to 2.4% as Euro Zone Growth Outlook Falls to 0.6%
Updated
Updated · IndexBox, Inc. · Jul 24
ECB Lifts 2026 Core Inflation to 2.4% as Euro Zone Growth Outlook Falls to 0.6%
3 articles · Updated · IndexBox, Inc. · Jul 24
Summary
The ECB’s Q3 survey raised 2026 euro-area core inflation by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4%, while keeping 2027 and 2028 core forecasts at 2.2% and 2.1%.
Headline inflation stayed broadly steady at 2.7% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027 and 2.0% for 2028, with only the 2027 figure revised up by 0.1 point.
Growth forecasts weakened more sharply: 2026 GDP was cut by 0.4 points to 0.6%, 2027 by 0.1 point to 1.2%, and 2031 longer-term growth by 0.1 point to 1.2%.
The survey said Middle East war effects were expected to be limited and concentrated in 2026, leaving inflation risks somewhat tilted upward this year and more balanced afterward.
Unemployment expectations edged higher to 6.3% in 2026 and 2027 before easing to 6.2% in 2028, ahead of the ECB staff projections due on Sept. 10.