Updated
Updated · Kursiv Media · Jul 24
Kazakhstan Cuts Base Rate 25 bps to 16.75% as Inflation Slows to 10.3%
Updated
Updated · Kursiv Media · Jul 24

Kazakhstan Cuts Base Rate 25 bps to 16.75% as Inflation Slows to 10.3%

3 articles · Updated · Kursiv Media · Jul 24

Summary

  • July 24’s rate decision lowered Kazakhstan’s base rate to 16.75%, extending June’s easing after a 100-basis-point cut to 17%.
  • June inflation slowed for a ninth straight month to 10.3% from 10.4%, helped by tight policy, a stronger tenge, steadier consumer activity and joint anti-inflation measures.
  • Monthly inflation still ran at 0.8% in June, and services inflation accelerated to 9%, prompting the central bank to warn that disinflation may be losing momentum.
  • GDP grew 4.1% in the first half, or about 5.3% excluding mining, while investment rose 9.6% and non-commodity investment excluding public funds jumped 28.9%.
  • The bank said risks still skew inflationary and signaled no preset path before its Sept. 4 meeting, leaving open either a pause or a policy reversal depending on incoming data.

Insights

If disinflation is slowing and services prices are rising, why did Kazakhstan’s central bank surprise markets with another rate cut?
Can Kazakhstan bring inflation back to 5% while growth stays strong, or will the central bank be forced to reverse course?