Democrats' House Polling Lead Shrinks to 4.7 Points as Republicans Deploy $530 Million
Updated
Updated · Washington Examiner · Jul 23
Democrats' House Polling Lead Shrinks to 4.7 Points as Republicans Deploy $530 Million
3 articles · Updated · Washington Examiner · Jul 23
Summary
RealClearPolitics' generic ballot average put Democrats ahead by 4.7 points, down from 7.4 at the start of June, offering Republicans a clearer path to defending a House majority they could lose with just three seats.
Recent surveys helped drive that shift: an RMG poll showed the Democratic edge narrowing to 2 points from 9 in May, while a Washington Post poll put the GOP deficit at 3 points and gave Republicans a 4-point edge on the economy.
Republican strategists argue the public numbers may still understate their support because GOP voters are less likely to answer surveys and pollsters may be shifting from registered to likely voters as November approaches.
The party is still fighting heavy headwinds — Trump's low approval, the Iran war, gas above $4 a gallon and a 50-50 prediction-market chance of an October shutdown that could hurt the governing party.
With about 100 days until the midterms, GOP and White House aides are planning a contrast campaign and weighing how to spend a $530 million war chest, even as some Republican pollsters say Democrats may still be gaining.