China’s growth through 2025 will depend more on how fast fiscal stimulus is spent than on new policy announcements, Standard Chartered said.
Local governments are the main pressure point: delays in financing, bond issuance and project approvals have previously slowed the economic impact of Beijing’s support measures.
Faster execution could lift infrastructure investment, aid the property sector and steady consumer confidence, while slow rollout risks extending subdued activity.
Investors should track local government special-bond issuance, new infrastructure project starts and fixed-asset investment data for a clearer read on whether stimulus is reaching the real economy.