Analyst Flags 7 Running Back Values for 2026 Drafts as ADPs Slip Into Round 13

Q: Is TreVeyon Henderson truly the best backup, or could Rico Dowdle's reunion with his old coach make him the smarter fantasy pick?

TreVeyon Henderson is the better all-around fantasy pick, while Rico Dowdle may be the better value if you are betting on role growth at cost. Henderson has the stronger ceiling and cleaner path to becoming more than a handcuff. The Patriots back already showed that in 2025, finishing with roughly 1,100 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns, and flashing top-10 fantasy upside when Rhamondre Stevenson missed time. Analysts also point to his efficiency, big-play ability and expanding Year 2 role, with some projecting him to overtake Stevenson outright. That gives Henderson both standalone flex value and league-winning upside if the backfield fully shifts. Dowdle’s case is more about situation and price. He has back-to-back seasons above 1,300 scrimmage yards and now reunites with Mike McCarthy in Pittsburgh, where McCarthy has publicly praised his fit and familiarity with the system. That makes Dowdle a serious threat to carve out early-down work and possibly lead the Steelers’ committee. Some analysts even view it as his job to lose. Still, his path is less secure because Jaylen Warren remains a strong competitor, especially in passing situations. If the question is who should rank higher, Henderson deserves the edge because he offers more explosive upside and a more realistic chance to become his team’s lead back. If the question is who might outperform draft cost, Dowdle has a strong argument as the smarter bargain.

Q: With two ACL tears, is Jonathon Brooks a league-winning gamble or a high-risk bust waiting to happen this season?

Jonathon Brooks is a high-risk gamble, not a player to draft as a likely league-winner. The upside is real. Brooks is still only 22, was highly regarded coming out of Texas, and plays in a Panthers backfield that has produced usable fantasy numbers under Dave Canales. Carolina no longer has Rico Dowdle, leaving touches available behind Chuba Hubbard. Brooks has reportedly been cleared for offseason work, coaches have praised his progress, and teammates have said he still looks quick. If he regains his pre-injury burst, he has the talent to push for a meaningful role and become a strong second-half stash. The risk is much easier to define. Brooks has torn the same ACL twice, once in college and again in December 2024, and he missed all of 2025. That is an unusually severe profile for a young running back, especially one with only three NFL games and 12 career touches. Even optimistic reports have been paired with caution from Carolina, which is expected to manage his workload carefully. That makes an early-season breakout difficult to project. His fantasy value depends heavily on price. If drafted as a bench stash in the middle-to-late rounds, Brooks makes sense because the ceiling still exists. If drafted as someone expected to deliver immediate RB2 production, the risk outweighs the likely return. The most reasonable view is that Brooks is a boom-or-bust stash with more paths to disappointment than to true league-winning value in 2026.

3 articles · Updated · NFL.com · Jul 21

Seven backs made the analyst’s 2026 value list, with Chargers runner Omarion Hampton highlighted as the biggest upside play despite an RB11 price in late Round 2.
16.5 fantasy points per game in Hampton’s eight healthy, 15-touch outings would have ranked RB8, and the Chargers’ rebuilt interior line plus new coordinator Mike McDaniel could amplify his outside-run strengths.
Round 3-5 targets include Chase Brown at RB13, Kyren Williams at RB17, Javonte Williams at RB16 and Bucky Irving at RB20, each backed by either stable volume, proven top-10 production or improved offensive conditions.
Double-digit-round swings center on Jonathan Brooks at RB39 in Round 11 and Jordan Mason in Round 13, both framed as cheap bets on larger roles if health or depth-chart shifts break their way.
The piece uses ESPN average draft position in a PPR format to spotlight players whose projected production appears to outpace current draft cost ahead of 2026 fantasy drafts.