South Korean Women Seen Reaching 90.8-Year Lifespan by 2030, With 57% Odds of Crossing 90
Updated
Updated · spacedaily.com · Jul 23
South Korean Women Seen Reaching 90.8-Year Lifespan by 2030, With 57% Odds of Crossing 90
1 articles · Updated · spacedaily.com · Jul 23
Summary
A 2017 Lancet study projected South Korean women could become the first national population to top 90 years in life expectancy by 2030, with a central estimate of 90.8 years.
The forecast was probabilistic, not a measurement: researchers put the chance of crossing 90 at 57% and the chance of exceeding 86.7 years at 90%.
Twenty-one mortality models in a Bayesian ensemble drove the estimate, placing South Korea ahead of France, Spain and Japan, which clustered closer to 88 years.
Near-universal health coverage, strong cardiovascular risk control, low female smoking and obesity, and broad gains in education and nutrition were cited as key reasons for the lead.
South Korean women were still around 86 to 87 years in 2023, and the projection sits alongside a sharper demographic strain: the country's ultra-low fertility will test pensions and elder care even if longevity keeps rising.