Analyst Backs Kanaya, Hubbard, Springer to Make 3M Open Top-65 Cut

Q: Will World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler’s debut dominate, or will a player on the playoff bubble steal the show at the 3M Open?

Scottie Scheffler is still the most likely player to define the 3M Open, but the stronger drama may come from the playoff bubble. Scheffler arrives as the clear favorite in his tournament debut at TPC Twin Cities. He is the world No. 1, leads the FedEx Cup standings, and has been remarkably steady, finishing inside the top 25 in all nine starts this season and coming off a T4 at The Open. On a course that rewards elite tee-to-green play and offers relatively forgiving bentgrass greens, his biggest recent weakness, putting, may be less damaging. That is why betting markets and analysts overwhelmingly see him as the player to beat. Still, this event is not only about the winner. With the FedEx Cup Playoffs three weeks away and only the top 70 advancing, players outside the line have far more urgency. Tony Finau, currently outside the cutoff, is one obvious example. Jason Day, Mark Hubbard, Hayden Springer, Takumi Kanaya and others also enter with either playoff pressure, strong course fit, or improving form. TPC Twin Cities is a birdie-heavy course where one hot putter can quickly become the story. That makes the most realistic answer a split one: Scheffler is the best bet to dominate the leaderboard, but a bubble player could still steal the spotlight if he makes a late charge into the playoffs. If that happens, the biggest “show-stealer” is more likely to be someone fighting for postseason survival than someone trying to match Scheffler shot for shot over four rounds.

Q: With tour cards on the line, which golfers will crack under the immense pressure at this final playoff tune-up?

The golfers most vulnerable to cracking at the 3M Open are the bubble players carrying both poor form and heavy FedEx Cup pressure, especially Tony Finau, Billy Horschel, Jason Day, Keegan Bradley, Brian Harman and Lucas Glover. Finau stands out because he is only 83rd in the FedEx Cup standings despite being a former 3M Open winner. He has just one top-10 this season, has missed most of the majors, and analysts note he is no longer the elite ball-striker he once was. At a course that punishes missed fairways, that is a serious warning sign. Horschel looks even more exposed. He is 101st in the standings, has missed six of his last eight cuts, and likely needs something close to a win to revive his playoff hopes. That combination of urgency and poor recent results makes him one of the clearest candidates to struggle. Day, currently sliding and just outside the top 70, faces a different kind of pressure. His limited schedule and lingering back concerns raise doubts about whether he can handle a week where every round matters. Bradley at 73rd and Harman at 74th are also in danger: both have been steady enough to make cuts, but neither has produced the high finishes needed to move safely inside the playoff line. Glover, 86th, has shown flashes with two recent top-fives, but he still needs another surge. Others flagged by experts as risky include Jake Knapp, because of injury-related poor form, and Maverick McNealy, whose inaccurate driving is a bad fit for TPC Twin Cities.

Q: Can data analytics truly predict golf success, or will the 'birdie fest' course defy the experts' parlay picks?

Data analytics can meaningfully improve golf predictions, but it cannot make them certain, especially at a low-scoring event like the 3M Open. At TPC Twin Cities, the numbers do have real value. The course has clear traits: it rewards birdie-making, punishes wild drives with water on 15 holes, and often favors players with strong approach play, scrambling and putting on large bentgrass greens. That is why models such as Data Golf’s Course Fit point to players like Takumi Kanaya, Mark Hubbard and Hayden Springer as sensible make-the-cut picks. Kanaya’s past success here, Hubbard’s recent run of made cuts, and Springer’s putting and rough-approach profile all match the course demands. But a “birdie fest” also increases volatility. When winning scores push toward 20-under, many players can get hot with the putter, and small swings matter more. One bad tee shot into water, one cold stretch on the greens, or one windy wave — with Friday expected to be the breeziest day — can undo even strong statistical cases. That is especially true for cut parlays, where all three players must survive the top-65-and-ties line. So the experts’ picks are evidence-based, not guesswork. Analytics can identify who is best suited to this course and who is arriving in the right form. What it cannot fully capture is golf’s week-to-week randomness, confidence, and the momentum that often decides a shootout. At the 3M Open, the data should be trusted as a guide, not treated as a guarantee.

2 articles · Updated · DraftKings · Jul 22

Three picks — Takumi Kanaya, Mark Hubbard and Hayden Springer — are projected to survive the 3M Open cut, where only the top 65 and ties advance at TPC Twin Cities.
Kanaya brings the strongest course case after a T7 in his 2025 3M Open debut, plus cuts made in 12 of 18 starts this season and a No. 6 ranking in the PGA Tour's Course Fit metric.
Hubbard has rebounded from an early slump by making five of his last seven cuts, while Springer has made five of nine and ranks 11th in Course Fit despite an uneven season.
The cut carries added weight because the FedEx Cup Playoffs begin in three weeks, leaving players near or outside the top 70 chasing points to extend their seasons.