Robert Mays Flags 5 Underrated and 5 Overrated NFL Teams for 2026

Q: With star QBs returning from serious injuries, which 'underrated' team's gamble on their quarterback's health is most likely to pay off?

The Cincinnati Bengals look like the safest bet among the “underrated” teams banking on a quarterback’s health, because Joe Burrow offers the clearest mix of proven elite play, a strong roster around him, and fewer uncertainties than the other candidates. Burrow’s case is stronger than Atlanta’s or Indianapolis’s because the question is less about whether he can win a job or adapt after a major structural injury, and more about staying on the field. Reports around camp indicate he is in a much better physical place after the turf toe issue that disrupted 2025, and Cincinnati’s results with and without him remain stark: the Bengals were competitive when he played and collapsed when he did not. When healthy, Burrow has already shown he can carry a contender, with multiple 4,400-yard seasons and top-tier production. The team context also supports the gamble. Cincinnati still has Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, added defensive help such as Boye Mafe, and enters 2026 with an easier schedule than many AFC rivals. Analysts are already framing the Bengals as a bounce-back team capable of pushing for the AFC North. By contrast, Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr. is coming off a third ACL tear and is still behind Tua Tagovailoa in full-team reps, making that gamble far less certain. Indianapolis has optimism around Daniel Jones’ Achilles recovery, but his ceiling and durability history are less convincing than Burrow’s. If one health bet is most likely to pay off, it is Cincinnati’s on Burrow.

1 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Jul 22

Five teams on Mays’ underrated list are Atlanta, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Carolina and New Orleans, with the NFC South standing out as a division that could outperform expectations.
Atlanta finished 8-9 in a three-way tie atop the NFC South, while the Colts get Daniel Jones back from an Achilles injury and the Bengals expect Joe Burrow’s return to lift a roster rebuilt on defense.
Carolina also enters with momentum after its first playoff berth in eight years and Bryce Young’s 3,011-yard, 23-touchdown season, while the Saints are banking on Tyler Shough’s second-year growth under rookie head coach Kellen Moore.
Five teams Mays labels overrated are Dallas, Buffalo, Chicago, Philadelphia and New England, largely because each faces transition, tougher schedules or likely regression from 2025 results.
Buffalo is adjusting after Sean McDermott’s firing, Chicago may struggle to repeat a league-leading 33 takeaways, Philadelphia is retooling after roster losses, and New England faces a harder path after its Super Bowl loss to Seattle.