Analyst Backs Broncos to Top 9.5 Wins After Jaylen Waddle Trade

Q: Is Jaylen Waddle the final piece for a Super Bowl, or an expensive gamble on a recovering quarterback?

Jaylen Waddle looks more like a high-upside win-now bet than a true final piece. Denver was already close: a 14-3 season, the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and an AFC title game appearance before Bo Nix’s broken ankle changed everything. Waddle directly addresses the Broncos’ clearest weakness. Their offense was middle-of-the-pack and short on explosive plays, ranking 24th in Explosive Play Rate, while Waddle remained one of the league’s more efficient receivers in 2025 at 2.34 yards per route, well ahead of Courtland Sutton’s 1.75. Sean Payton’s offense also uses route concepts and screens that fit Waddle’s speed and run-after-catch strengths. That said, calling him the final Super Bowl piece goes too far. Denver paid a steep price — a first-, third-, and fourth-round pick, plus it takes on a future cap hit north of $27 million in 2027. Waddle is productive and only 27, but he has only one season above 1,100 yards and six touchdowns, which explains why some analysts see the cost as aggressive rather than obvious value. The bigger variable is Nix. He is recovering from a broken ankle and a second cleanup procedure in April, though both he and Payton say he is ahead of schedule and expected to be ready well before training camp. If Nix returns fully healthy, Waddle could be the move that lifts Denver from contender to legitimate AFC favorite. If Nix’s mobility or efficiency slips, the trade will look like an expensive attempt to solve a quarterback-dependent problem.

3 articles · Updated · Fox News · Jul 22

A 9.5-win total looks beatable for Denver, with the analyst projecting the Broncos to reach 10 wins in the 2025 season.
The case rests on a defense expected to remain elite, Sean Payton's coaching, and the addition of Jaylen Waddle in a trade that cost a first-, third- and fourth-round pick.
Denver's offense still raises doubts around whether Bo Nix can repeat last season's level, and the analyst argues some of the team's prior good fortune is likely to regress.
A tougher schedule is the main obstacle, but the outlook still assumes two wins over the Raiders and at least a split with Kansas City.