SpaceX Falcon 9 Fragment to Hit Moon on Aug. 5 at 5,400 mph
Updated
Updated · Scientific American · Jul 21
SpaceX Falcon 9 Fragment to Hit Moon on Aug. 5 at 5,400 mph
3 articles · Updated · Scientific American · Jul 21
Summary
A 10,800-pound Falcon 9 upper-stage fragment is forecast to strike the moon at about 2:34 a.m. EDT on Aug. 5 near Einstein Crater, giving astronomers a rare real-time impact target.
The debris was launched in January 2025 carrying Firefly’s Blue Ghost and ispace’s Hakuto-R, but failed to burn up on Earth reentry and instead drifted into a hard-to-predict orbit shaped by lunar gravity and solar radiation pressure.
Twenty-three astronomers urged coordinated observations in a new arXiv paper, saying the impact could reveal how lunar craters form immediately after collision and help gauge debris risks around the moon.
Detecting the flash may be difficult because the strike is expected on the moon’s sunlit side, though ejecta rising off the limb could still be visible against dark space.
NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter plan before-and-after imaging as agencies expand lunar missions and weigh the need to track junk near future moon bases.