Kalshi, Gaming Groups Boost 2026 Lobbying to $1.8 Million as Congress Probes Prediction Markets
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jul 21
Kalshi, Gaming Groups Boost 2026 Lobbying to $1.8 Million as Congress Probes Prediction Markets
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jul 21
Summary
Kalshi spent $990,000 on direct lobbying in the first half of 2026 and nearly $1.8 million including outside firms—already above its full-year 2025 total—as Washington scrutiny of prediction markets intensified.
The casino side is matching that push: the American Gaming Association also reached nearly $1.8 million with outside firms, up 30% from a year earlier, while Cherokee Nation spent $600,000 and Polymarket remained far smaller at $180,000.
That spending surge follows insider-trading concerns tied to trades before U.S. actions in Venezuela and Iran, a Wall Street Journal report on politically informed betting, and an investigation involving a suspended Trump teleprompter operator who traded on Kalshi.
Congress has responded with bills targeting insider trading and event contracts on sports, elections and war, though a House hearing this week showed some openness to treating sports contracts as CFTC-regulated swaps rather than state-regulated gambling.
Legislation is still seen as unlikely before the November elections, leaving the CFTC's June proposal and ongoing House Oversight scrutiny as the main near-term threats—and, analysts say, a congressional stalemate may favor the platforms.
With millions wagered on military actions, can regulators truly stop spies from profiting on these new global markets?
When a bet on an election is called a 'swap,' where does Wall Street end and a casino begin?
As betting expands to every aspect of life, are we creating a more informed public or a society of gamblers?
Inside the 2026 Prediction Markets Showdown: CFTC Deadlines, Lobbying Wars, and the Federal-State Regulatory Clash
Overview
In July 2026, the prediction markets industry faces a pivotal moment as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) opens its proposed rules for public comment, with a tight deadline creating urgency among stakeholders. This has sparked a surge in lobbying, drawing in prominent political figures and advocacy groups on both sides. The debate centers on whether prediction markets should be regulated as financial products or gambling, with companies like Kalshi pushing for federal oversight and traditional gaming interests advocating for stricter state control. The outcome of this regulatory and political battle will shape the industry's future and its role in the broader financial and gaming landscape.