Updated

Updated · Tech Times · Jul 21

Coronal Hole May Double Solar Wind to 700 km/s, Raising G2 Aurora Chance by July 22

Updated

Updated · Tech Times · Jul 21

Coronal Hole May Double Solar Wind to 700 km/s, Raising G2 Aurora Chance by July 22

Q: The sun's peak activity is over. Is this your last best chance to see the aurora for another decade?

No. The sun has likely passed the statistical peak of Solar Cycle 25, but that does not mean aurora chances suddenly collapse. Solar activity typically declines gradually, and the years just after maximum can still produce strong geomagnetic storms and vivid northern lights. The evidence points to 2026 still being an unusually good aurora year. Solar Cycle 25 peaked around late 2024, yet elevated activity has continued well into 2026, with major flares, proton events and geomagnetic storms still occurring. Space-weather experts note that the “declining phase” often remains turbulent for two to three years after peak, and some of the most dramatic low-latitude aurora events can happen during that stretch. What does change is the odds. Through 2026 and likely 2027, viewers in the auroral zone and northern U.S. states should still have strong opportunities, especially during well-timed storms. After that, activity is expected to taper more noticeably as the sun heads toward minimum in the early 2030s, making widespread displays less frequent and pushing the best viewing back toward Alaska, Canada, Scandinavia and other high-latitude regions. So this is not your last best chance for another decade, but it is part of one of the best windows. If you want a realistic takeaway: the next year or two should still be favorable, while the later 2020s will probably offer fewer big nights. The next broad peak in aurora potential is expected in the mid-2030s with Solar Cycle 26.

3 articles · Updated · Tech Times · Jul 21

NOAA-linked modeling shows a large transequatorial coronal hole could lift solar wind from about 325 km/s to roughly 700 km/s by July 22, with geomagnetic conditions rising from quiet now to G1 and possibly G2.
That fast stream is forecast to form a corotating interaction region as it overtakes slower solar wind, a setup forecasters can track days ahead—unlike CME storms whose magnetic orientation is unknown until 15 to 60 minutes before impact.
July 22 is the best aurora window, with Seattle, Edinburgh and Oslo among the mid-latitude cities that could see displays if G2 intervals develop; July 21 is expected to be weaker, around unsettled to active conditions.
G1 to G2 storms can bring minor satellite drag, weak grid fluctuations, voltage alarms at high latitudes and some HF radio fading, though operators have unusual multi-day lead time to prepare.
AR4491, the sunspot region that drew flare attention last week, has stayed small and quiet so far, while an unnumbered northeast-limb region producing C-class flares remains a secondary wildcard.