RBA Hike Odds Double to 80% by November as Brent Jumps 23% on US-Iran Conflict
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Jul 21
RBA Hike Odds Double to 80% by November as Brent Jumps 23% on US-Iran Conflict
2 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Jul 21
Summary
Markets now price an 80% chance of an RBA rate hike by November, up from 40% two weeks ago, with the odds of an August 12 move rising to nearly 30% from 16%.
Brent crude has surged 23% in two weeks to near $90 a barrel after the US-Iran ceasefire collapsed, lifting inflation risks as Iran declared “full-scale war” and Houthi rebels threatened Red Sea oil flows.
Australian fuel costs are already climbing: diesel has jumped 40 cents in July to about A$2.10 a litre on the east coast, while unleaded is up 25 cents to roughly A$1.75 after partial fuel excise relief ended.
CBA’s Luke Yeaman still expects no more rate rises this year for now, but said a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption could justify one further hike while also slowing growth.
ANZ’s Daniel Hynes said depleted inventories have left oil markets fragile, with $80-$90 a barrel now more realistic and $100 to $150 possible if the conflict drags into late August or worsens.