Updated

Updated · POLITICO · Jul 21

Trey Gowdy Leads South Carolina Senate Poll at 38% as Trump Endorsement Lifts Graham to 16%

Updated

Updated · POLITICO · Jul 21

Trey Gowdy Leads South Carolina Senate Poll at 38% as Trump Endorsement Lifts Graham to 16%

Q: Can an appointed senator facing an eligibility challenge win the upcoming special election for a full term?

Yes — but only if she clears the eligibility review and then wins the election. In South Carolina, an appointed U.S. senator can serve temporarily until a special election fills the seat. Darline Graham, appointed after Lindsey Graham’s death, is allowed to seek the seat for a full term, but her immediate obstacle is not the appointment itself. It is a party eligibility challenge over whether she satisfies a South Carolina Republican rule requiring candidates to have voted in two of the last three Republican primaries, unless party leaders grant a waiver. That review is expected before the July 28 certification deadline. If Graham is ruled eligible, or receives a waiver, she can remain on the ballot for the Aug. 11 special primary. If no candidate wins a majority, a runoff is set for Aug. 25. The nominee would then advance to the Nov. 3 general election against Democrat Annie Andrews. The polling shows the scale of the challenge. Peak Insights found Trey Gowdy leading with 38 percent, even though he says he is not interested in running. Graham was at 9 percent initially, rising to 16 percent after President Trump’s endorsement, while Gowdy slipped slightly to 35 percent when respondents were told of that endorsement. So the answer is straightforward: an appointed senator facing an eligibility challenge can still win the full term, but only if she survives the certification dispute, secures the nomination, and then wins the general election.

Q: Will a popular TV host enter the Senate race before the filing deadline closes next week?

There is no clear sign that Trey Gowdy will enter the South Carolina Senate race before next week’s filing deadline. Gowdy is polling strongly, with Peak Insights showing him at 38 percent, and 35 percent even after respondents were told of President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Darline Graham. That makes him a serious potential contender on paper. Senator Tim Scott is also openly trying to recruit him, saying Gowdy would be a strong fit for the seat and has been in frequent contact with him. But the strongest available evidence still points the other way: Gowdy, through a spokesperson, has said he has not discussed the open seat and has no interest in running. Scott himself has acknowledged that Gowdy has been “pretty clear” he is not seeking the job. The filing window runs from July 21 to noon on July 28, so there is still time for a late decision. In fast-moving special elections, last-minute entries can happen. Still, based on the public record now, there is no indication Gowdy has changed his position. So the best answer is that it remains possible, but unlikely on current evidence. Unless Gowdy reverses himself very quickly, there is no factual basis yet to say the TV host will join the race before the deadline.

2 articles · Updated · POLITICO · Jul 21

Peak Insights found Trey Gowdy leading South Carolina’s Senate special-election field with 38%, despite saying through a spokesperson that he has no interest in the open seat.
Trump’s endorsement showed limited impact in the poll: Darline Graham rose from 9% to 16% when voters were told he backed her, while Gowdy slipped only from 38% to 35%.
Tim Scott has been actively trying to recruit Gowdy, first urging his appointment after Lindsey Graham’s death and then publicly pressing him to enter the special election.
The race is shaping up as a test of Trump’s sway in South Carolina Republicans, with multiple candidates stressing loyalty to the president even without his formal backing.