South Africa Faces Post-2028 Gas Cliff as 90% Mozambique Supply Starts Declining
Updated
Updated · The Conversation · Jul 21
South Africa Faces Post-2028 Gas Cliff as 90% Mozambique Supply Starts Declining
1 articles · Updated · The Conversation · Jul 21
Summary
After 2028, gas from Mozambique’s Pande and Temane fields—source of roughly 90% of South Africa’s supply for more than two decades—is set to decline, raising risks well beyond the power sector.
About 35%-40% of that gas feeds Sasol’s Secunda operations and another 35%-40% its Sasolburg chemicals complex, tying the shortfall to synthetic fuels, ammonia, methanol, fertiliser and wider manufacturing chains.
Industrial users could face replacement costs of two to five times current gas prices, while sectors reliant on the supply employ about 70,000-100,000 people; Sasol’s wider footprint was estimated at 5% of GDP and roughly 500,000 jobs.
TIPS says South Africa has little near-term alternative but LNG imports, with a dual-terminal strategy centered on Mozambique and KwaZulu-Natal needed to connect inland demand and coastal gas-to-power markets by mid-2030.
Draft plans and permitting have advanced, but regulators, state firms and investors still need procurement, approvals and infrastructure decisions within the next few years to avoid a post-2030 supply shortfall.
Can South Africa’s industries survive the critical gas supply gap looming in 2028?
With its anchor project stalled, is the billion-dollar Richards Bay LNG terminal now a massive gamble?
Facing the 2028 Gas Cliff: South Africa’s Looming Energy Crisis and the High-Stakes Search for Solutions
Overview
South Africa faces a looming energy crisis known as the 'gas cliff,' set for July 2028 when Sasol will stop supplying Mozambican gas to industrial users. This crisis is driven by the country's heavy reliance on imported gas and its significant lag in developing domestic gas resources. The end of this supply threatens to disrupt key economic sectors, risking up to 70,000 direct job losses and putting R300 billion to R500 billion of annual GDP at stake. Without urgent action and alternative solutions, the nation’s industrial base and broader economy are in serious jeopardy.