Updated
Updated · ING Think · Jul 21
UK Private-Sector Jobs Fall 0.5% as Wage Growth Slows Below 3%
Updated
Updated · ING Think · Jul 21

UK Private-Sector Jobs Fall 0.5% as Wage Growth Slows Below 3%

3 articles · Updated · ING Think · Jul 21

Summary

  • Private-sector payrolls fell 0.5% through June, extending a hiring slump even as overall UK unemployment held at 4.9% and total payroll employment stayed flat.
  • Consumer services led the weakness, with hospitality, retail and entertainment jobs falling at nearly 3% annualised rates after National Insurance and minimum-wage increases and post-Covid overstaffing.
  • Private-sector pay growth has dropped below 3% from 6% 18 months ago, while public-sector pay is still rising above 5% and public payrolls are up 0.7% this year.
  • That low-hire, low-fire pattern is easing second-round inflation risks and supports calls for the Bank of England to keep rates on hold this year unless energy prices worsen.

Insights

Caught between a weak job market and war-fueled inflation, can the Bank of England steer the UK away from recession?
As AI fears grow, why have the most exposed UK jobs seen growth instead of the predicted mass layoffs?
With youth unemployment at a 12-year high, is the UK's 'stabilizing' labor market masking a generational crisis?