Jamie Dimon Shuns Stocks and Long-Dated Treasurys, Sees 10-Year Yield at 4% to 4.5%
Updated
Updated · BeInCrypto · Jul 21
Jamie Dimon Shuns Stocks and Long-Dated Treasurys, Sees 10-Year Yield at 4% to 4.5%
3 articles · Updated · BeInCrypto · Jul 21
Summary
Jamie Dimon said he would not buy either broad U.S. equities or long-dated Treasurys at current prices, arguing investors are underestimating geopolitical and fiscal risks.
4% to 4.5% is where Dimon said the 10-year Treasury should probably trade even if inflation returns to the Fed's 2% target, leaving little upside for bond prices.
Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, U.S.-China tensions, rising military spending and persistent U.S. deficits could still trigger a sudden market inflection point, he said, even if some risk is already priced in.
Nearly 10% gains in the S&P 500 this year and blockbuster JPMorgan results underscore the contrast with markets that have largely looked past wars, tariffs and other shocks.
AI spending may ultimately pay off like the internet did, Dimon said, but not on the timetable investors expect and likely not for all of today's early leaders.
Why are markets hitting new highs when a top CEO warns of unprecedented economic and geopolitical risks?
As U.S. debt spirals, could government policies deliberately suppress interest rates and punish bond investors?
Is the massive AI infrastructure boom a productivity miracle or the next great inflationary shock for the global economy?
Jamie Dimon Sounds Alarm on 2026 Markets: AI Hype, Soaring Yields, and Fiscal Crisis Threaten Stability
Overview
In June-July 2026, Jamie Dimon adopts a cautious stance on financial markets, warning that current valuations of equities and long-dated U.S. Treasurys are too high. He believes markets are underestimating major risks, especially the exuberance around artificial intelligence (AI) investments, which have fueled rapid stock market growth. Drawing parallels to the dotcom bubble, Dimon and the Bank of England highlight that AI company valuations appear stretched and could face a sharp correction. While Dimon sees AI as a transformative technology, he cautions that many individual investments in this overheated environment are likely to fail, with some money probably being lost.