Updated

Updated · South China Morning Post · Jul 20

China's June Soybean Imports Hit 13.55 Million Tonnes as Brazil Extends Lead Over US

Updated

Updated · South China Morning Post · Jul 20

China's June Soybean Imports Hit 13.55 Million Tonnes as Brazil Extends Lead Over US

Q: With US soy exports to China collapsing, is the multi-billion dollar trade pledge now an empty promise?

Not yet, but it is clearly at risk of becoming one. The pledge still exists on paper: China has reaffirmed a commitment to buy at least 25 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028, alongside a broader agricultural purchase target. But the trade flow so far in 2026 is moving the other way. China’s June soybean imports from Brazil rose 13.7% year on year, while U.S. shipments fell 20.6%. For the first half of 2026, U.S. volumes to China were down 42.4% to 9.31 million tonnes, versus 34.75 million tonnes from Brazil. That does not automatically mean the pledge is broken. Soybean cargoes reflect deals made weeks or months earlier, and China typically buys South American beans heavily during Brazil’s harvest season. That leaves room for a late-year surge in U.S. purchases if Beijing wants to catch up to its annual target. The bigger problem is structural. Brazil is not just winning on timing; it is winning on price, freight, supply growth and logistics. Chinese buyers are also carrying high inventories and have become more comfortable relying on Brazil as their main supplier. U.S. soybeans have been less competitive, and past trade commitments between Washington and Beijing have not always been fully met. So the pledge is better seen as politically alive but commercially fragile. Unless China sharply increases U.S. buying in the second half of 2026, the promise will look increasingly symbolic rather than binding in practice.

1 articles · Updated · South China Morning Post · Jul 20

13.55 million tonnes of soybeans arrived in China in June, a record for the month, with Brazilian shipments up 13.7% from a year earlier while US volumes fell 20.6%.
Brazilian supply and the clearing of cargoes delayed at Chinese ports drove the surge in total arrivals, widening Brazil's lead in China's soybean market.
9.31 million tonnes came from the US in the first half, down 42.4%, even though China has pledged to buy at least 25 million tonnes a year through 2028.
34.75 million tonnes came from Brazil in January-June, up 9.1%, underscoring a longer shift in sourcing even as annual US purchases could still be concentrated later in 2026.

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South China Morning Post17h ago

China's Brazilian Soybean Imports Hit Record 13.55M Tonnes in June; US Shipments Decline

China is developing soy alternatives. Is Brazil's record-breaking export boom actually nearing its end?

As Brazil dominates the market, what future do American soybean farmers have in the global trade landscape?

With US soy exports to China collapsing, is the multi-billion dollar trade pledge now an empty promise?

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Left100%

South China Morning Post17h ago

China's Brazilian Soybean Imports Hit Record 13.55M Tonnes in June; US Shipments Decline

China's June Soybean Imports Hit 13.55 Million Tonnes as Brazil Extends Lead Over US

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