4.8% growth is projected for Morocco in 2026, with the Haut-Commissariat au Plan expecting an exceptional agricultural rebound to lift the economy before growth slows to 3% in 2027 on an average cereal harvest assumption.
Domestic demand is set to remain the main support through stronger consumption and investment, even as foreign demand directed toward Morocco drops to 2.6% in 2026 from 4.9% in 2025.
Higher commodity prices and Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption are expected to pressure foreign exchange and widen Morocco’s trade deficit in 2026, reflecting a weaker global backdrop.
The fiscal picture is projected to improve slightly, with the budget deficit narrowing to 3.4% of GDP in 2026 from 3.5% in 2025 and debt ratios continuing their decline.
IMF forecasts broadly match the domestic view, putting Morocco at 4.9% growth in 2026 versus 4.6% for Egypt and 2.1% for Tunisia, though all remain exposed to energy, food and trade shocks.