Alibaba, Moonshot Push 2.4T and 2.8T AI Models as Demand Forces Subscription Pause
Updated
Updated · Stratechery by Ben Thompson · Jul 20
Alibaba, Moonshot Push 2.4T and 2.8T AI Models as Demand Forces Subscription Pause
3 articles · Updated · Stratechery by Ben Thompson · Jul 20
Summary
Moonshot paused new subscriptions after heavy demand for Kimi K3, while Alibaba released a preview of Qwen3.8 Max and said it plans to make the model open-weight.
Kimi K3 and Qwen3.8 Max are emerging as near-frontier contenders, with Alibaba describing Qwen3.8 Max as second only to Anthropic’s Fable 5 and positioning both models as broadly accessible alternatives.
The report argues their low listed prices do not necessarily mean lower real serving costs, because inference, token use and model efficiency—not sticker token rates alone—determine the cost of delivering usable intelligence.
That makes the bigger threat less immediate price disruption than China’s open-weight strategy: Beijing is encouraging openness to spread AI into industries such as robotics and to narrow any U.S. advantage.
The piece warns the sharpest risk may be cybersecurity, where U.S. restrictions on frontier models could leave defenders relying on Chinese open models instead.
As China offers powerful AI to the world for free, is Silicon Valley's expensive, proprietary model now obsolete?
Is China's open-source strategy a greater threat to US tech dominance than the race for advanced computer chips?
With Chinese AI allegedly built on stolen US tech, how can Washington protect its most critical intellectual property?
Kimi K3 and Qwen3.8: China’s Trillion-Parameter Open-Source AI Models Reshape the Global AI Landscape
Overview
The report highlights the groundbreaking release of Moonshot AI's Kimi K3, an open-weight large language model with 2.8 trillion parameters, making it the most powerful model ever released. Its open-source nature allows developers to freely download, modify, and deploy the model, which is set to disrupt existing commercial AI models, especially in Silicon Valley. Running Kimi K3 locally requires significant computing resources, but its accessibility is expected to accelerate global AI innovation. The model's capabilities have even raised concerns among US tech leaders about falling behind China, underscoring the growing impact of open-source AI on the global stage.