Updated

Updated · FOX 26 Houston · Jul 19

Tropical Depression 2 Threatens Texas as Hurricane Hunters Probe Storm Ahead of Thursday Turn

Updated

Updated · FOX 26 Houston · Jul 19

Tropical Depression 2 Threatens Texas as Hurricane Hunters Probe Storm Ahead of Thursday Turn

Q: As Tropical Storm Bertha targets Texas, what one factor will decide its ultimate power?

The key factor is **how long Bertha stays over deep, very warm Gulf water instead of interacting with land or cooler water**. Forecasts show the storm’s track remains unusually uncertain, and that track will largely determine its strength. If Bertha turns west and spends more time over the Gulf’s high ocean heat content — especially deeper warm water that can keep feeding the storm even as winds churn the surface — it has a better chance to intensify, potentially beyond the current 50 to 60 mph outlook. If it drifts inland sooner, crosses shallower or cooler water, or encounters stronger wind shear, its strengthening would be limited. That is why forecasters are focusing so heavily on the expected steering shift late Tuesday into Wednesday. The exact path will decide how much fuel the storm can tap before reaching Texas. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center have also stressed that confidence in the intensity forecast is lower than normal, with Hurricane Hunter flights gathering data to refine whether Bertha remains mostly a rainmaker or becomes a stronger wind and surge threat. In short, Bertha’s ultimate power depends most on its **track over the Gulf’s warm-water energy source** — specifically, whether it stays over deep warm water long enough to strengthen.

3 articles · Updated · FOX 26 Houston · Jul 19

Tropical Depression Two formed in the northern Gulf on Sunday, with forecasters expecting it to strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha on Monday and approach southeast Texas by Thursday or Friday.
Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew into the system Sunday and will return Monday to collect atmospheric data, which officials say should sharpen forecasts for wind, storm surge and severe weather risks.
Latest models show the depression lingering in the eastern Gulf through midweek before a late Tuesday-to-Wednesday steering shift turns it sharply west toward the Texas coast.
Texas coastal waters could see tropical-storm-force winds as early as Wednesday evening, while rain and thunderstorm chances rise substantially Thursday and Friday.
Uncertainty over the exact track and intensity remains higher than normal, and officials are already warning of dangerous Gulf rip currents and urging upper Texas coast residents to monitor updates.