Du Plessis Leads Usman by 72% on Polymarket Ahead of July 18 UFC Main Event

Q: Will Usman's move to middleweight reveal a rejuvenated fighter, or expose him to the division's elite power?

Usman’s move to middleweight looks more likely to expose him to elite power than reveal a true late-career revival. The evidence points that way. Du Plessis is in his prime at 32, owns a 23-3 record, and brings a rare mix of volume, finishing ability and physicality for the division. He lands more than five significant strikes per minute, mixes in takedowns effectively, and has proven himself against top middleweights such as Sean Strickland and Robert Whittaker. Betting markets strongly favor him, with Polymarket around 72% and FanDuel listing him as a clear favorite. Usman still has tools that could make the fight competitive. His wrestling pedigree, 89% takedown defense and strong jab give him a plausible path if he can control range, work along the fence and force Du Plessis into defensive grappling. Some analysts believe a full camp at 185 pounds, without the strain of a welterweight cut, could leave him healthier and more durable than he has looked recently. But the larger trend is difficult to ignore. Usman is 39, coming off a year-long layoff, and has gone 1-3 in his last four fights. In those losses, he was repeatedly hit clean and absorbed the majority of the striking exchanges. That is a dangerous profile against a bigger, younger middleweight with proven knockout power. So while middleweight may help Usman physically in some respects, the more likely outcome against an elite opponent like Du Plessis is that the division’s size and power become the defining story.

3 articles · Updated · Sports Illustrated · Jul 18

Polymarket priced Dricus Du Plessis at 72% versus Kamaru Usman’s 29% for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event in Oklahoma City, making the former middleweight champion a clear market favorite.
That gap reflects recent form: Du Plessis is 23-3 overall and 9-1 in the UFC, with his only recent defeat coming in last August’s title loss to Khamzat Chimaev.
Usman returns after a year away at age 39 and has gone 1-3 in his last four fights, though his 89% takedown defense remains his strongest statistical edge.
The matchup still looks difficult for Usman because Du Plessis combines knockout and submission threats, while opponents in Usman’s three recent losses landed more than 70% of their strikes.