Sam Burns Seizes 2-Shot Open Lead at -10 as Ryan Fox Fires 62

Q: Can rising star Ludvig Aberg's elite ball-striking overcome his four-shot deficit to capture his first major title?

Yes — Åberg has a realistic chance, but he likely needs both a low round and some help from the leaders. The case for him is strong. Royal Birkdale this week has rewarded elite ball-striking, with firm, fast conditions and only moderate wind placing a premium on driving control and precise iron play. That fits Åberg’s profile. He is one of the best tee-to-green players in the game, ranked near the top of the PGA Tour in overall strokes gained and birdie production, and he has already shown in majors that his ball-striking can hold up under pressure. The four-shot gap is significant, but not prohibitive, especially on a leaderboard this compressed. Burns leads at 10-under, with Fox and Si Woo Kim at 8-under and several others between Åberg and the top. In scoreable conditions, a player can make up ground quickly, as shown by the multiple 62s posted this week, including Fox’s record-equalling round Saturday. The main question is whether Åberg can convert enough chances. His long game gives him the platform, but his putting has been less reliable than his ball-striking. In a final round chase, that matters: he may need something in the mid-60s, and that usually requires a hot putter as much as elite iron play. So the answer is yes, but not on ball-striking alone. If Åberg pairs his tee-to-green strength with a sharp putting day and stays patient in links conditions, he has the tools to win his first major.

3 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Jul 18

Sam Burns will take a two-shot lead into the final round at Royal Birkdale after a five-under 65 lifted him to 10-under in difficult afternoon conditions.
Only 12 of the final 40 players broke par, underscoring Burns' control as morning starter Ryan Fox exploited calmer weather for a 62 to join Kim Si-woo at eight-under.
Bryson DeChambeau stayed within range at six-under despite the fallout from his two-shot rules penalty, while Ludvig Aberg also sits at six-under and Tommy Fleetwood at five-under.
Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele are four-under, leaving Burns favored for a first major after already finishing seventh at the Masters and second at the U.S. Open this year.