Updated

Updated · CBS Sports · Jul 18

Jon Eimer Backs England-France Over 3.5 Goals at +110 in 2026 World Cup Third-Place Match

Updated

Updated · CBS Sports · Jul 18

Jon Eimer Backs England-France Over 3.5 Goals at +110 in 2026 World Cup Third-Place Match

Q: Will the Golden Boot race between Mbappé and Kane transform this consolation game into a high-scoring classic?

Yes—there is a strong case that the Golden Boot chase could help turn this third-place playoff into an open, high-scoring game, even if “classic” may be too strong a guarantee. The biggest driver is Kylian Mbappé. He is tied with Lionel Messi on eight goals, and goals in the bronze match count toward the Golden Boot. Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, both on six, still have an outside chance, which gives England’s attack its own personal incentive. SportsLine analyst Jon Eimer has pointed directly to that race as a reason to expect more goals, backing the over and arguing that star forwards will be motivated to attack rather than conserve energy. History supports that view. Third-place World Cup matches are often looser and more attack-minded than semifinals or finals. Since 1978, they have averaged about 3.83 goals, and seven of the last eight have produced at least three. The betting market reflects that pattern, with the total set at 3.5 goals—high by elite international standards. There are still reasons for caution. Both teams are coming off painful semifinal defeats, fatigue is a factor in Miami’s heat and humidity, and squad rotation could affect rhythm. England manager Thomas Tuchel has also faced criticism for conservative tactics, while France were blunted badly by Spain. Still, the combination of reduced defensive pressure, strong attacking talent, and individual scoring stakes makes a lively, chance-filled match more likely than a cagey one.

Q: With one manager leaving and another under fire, who has more to prove in the World Cup's bronze medal match?

Thomas Tuchel has more to prove. Didier Deschamps is managing his final match for France, but his standing is already secure. After 14 years in charge, he leaves with a 2018 World Cup title, a 2022 runner-up finish and a long record of knockout success. Saturday’s game matters to him as a proper send-off and a chance for France to finish third, but it is unlikely to change how his tenure is judged. Tuchel’s situation is far more immediate. England’s semifinal loss to Argentina intensified criticism of his game management, especially after his side led 1-0 and then retreated into a defensive shape before conceding twice late. Pundits and former players have openly questioned his tactics, and the bronze medal match gives him a direct chance to answer that scrutiny with a sharper, more assertive performance. The stakes are also practical for Tuchel. England have not finished this high at a World Cup since 1966, and another flat display would deepen doubts about whether he is the right coach to turn strong squads into tournament winners. He was hired to solve exactly these knockout-stage problems, so this match carries symbolic weight beyond third place. Deschamps is playing for a final chapter. Tuchel is playing to restore confidence. That makes the England manager the one under greater pressure in Miami.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Jul 18

Jon Eimer’s latest pick for Saturday’s England-France third-place game is goals: he leans Over 2.5 at -235 and Over 3.5 at +110, while also touting a separate best bet that could return nearly +400.
Miami’s 5 p.m. ET matchup follows semifinal defeats for both sides—England’s last-minute loss to Argentina and France’s 2-0 defeat to Spain—which Eimer says could reduce defensive intensity.
Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane underpin that view because both still have Golden Boot motivation; Eimer said Mbappe will attack for the award, while Kane sits two goals back alongside Jude Bellingham.
FanDuel lists France as the favorite at -120 on the 90-minute money line, with England at +290 and the draw at +300; France are -215 to finish third versus England at +172.
Eimer’s recommendations come with a strong recent record: 31-13-2 on 2026 soccer picks, more than $1,200 profit on Champions League bets, and a profitable 27-18-2 run on World Cup selections.