RBNZ Rate-Hike Bets Jump to 52 Bps as Fed Expectations Ease on Soft US Inflation
Updated
Updated · investinglive.com · Jul 17
RBNZ Rate-Hike Bets Jump to 52 Bps as Fed Expectations Ease on Soft US Inflation
3 articles · Updated · investinglive.com · Jul 17
Summary
52 basis points of RBNZ tightening is now priced by year-end, leading a broad hawkish repricing across major central banks as the US-Iran crisis returned markets to pre-ceasefire conditions.
Soft US inflation broke that pattern for the Fed, where hike expectations eased as traders reinforced the view that inflation has already peaked.
By the next meetings, markets still see no change as the base case for most peers, including an 86% hold probability for the ECB, 92% for the BoE and 95% for the BoJ.
42 basis points of ECB tightening, 37 for the BoE and 26 for the Fed show investors are still pricing some year-end tightening even as near-term pause expectations dominate.
A longer US-Iran standoff would likely deepen pressure on financial markets and the global economy, keeping risk appetite tied to geopolitical developments.