Apophis Could Be Seen by 90% of Earth in 2029 as It Passes Within 19,000 Miles

Q: Earth's gravity will alter Apophis's path in 2029. Could this 'safe' flyby accidentally create a future impact threat?

No. Earth’s gravity will significantly bend Apophis’s path during the 2029 flyby, but current measurements show it will not turn the asteroid into a future impact threat. That possibility was the main concern when Apophis was discovered in 2004. Scientists worried it might pass through a tiny “gravitational keyhole” in 2029, a narrow region of space where Earth’s gravity could redirect it onto a later collision course. More precise tracking, especially radar observations, has since ruled that out. NASA and other researchers now say there is zero chance of an impact in 2029 and no impact risk for at least the next 100 years. The 2029 pass will come within about 30,600 kilometers of Earth, close enough for Earth’s gravity to alter Apophis’s orbit, spin and possibly even its surface. But those changes have been modeled in detail, and they do not place the asteroid on a dangerous return path. Scientists still want to watch closely because the encounter is unusually close and scientifically valuable. Missions such as NASA’s OSIRIS-APEX and planned international observations will measure how tidal forces reshape the asteroid and refine its future trajectory even further. That matters for planetary defense generally, because Apophis offers a rare real-world test of how a large near-Earth asteroid responds to a close planetary encounter. So the flyby is best understood as a major research opportunity and a rare public sky event, not a newly created hazard.

3 articles · Updated · Livescience.com · Jul 17

New visibility maps show up to 7.6 billion people could spot asteroid Apophis during its seven-hour flyby on April 13, 2029, making it the first predicted naked-eye asteroid pass of its kind.
At its closest approach, the 1,500-foot asteroid will come within about 19,000 miles of Earth—closer than some geosynchronous satellites—while posing zero impact risk during the flyby or for the next 100 years.
Peak viewing could reach 5.7 billion people across eastern Africa, southern Europe, Australia, Asia and the Middle East; North America is the only continent without a clear view.
Scientists still plan intensive observations from ground telescopes and spacecraft including NASA's OSIRIS-APEX, both to study how Earth's gravity may alter Apophis and to refine future hazard assessments.
The event's significance has prompted the U.N. to designate 2029 the International Year of Asteroid Awareness and Planetary Defence.

Sources

Livescience.com19h ago

Asteroid Apophis 2029 Flyby: New Maps Show 90% of Earth's Population Could See "God of Chaos"

Forbes9h ago

1,000 Days Until 'God Of Chaos' Asteroid Stuns Skywatchers

bbc.co.uk19h ago

Apophis asteroid will not hit Earth for 100 years, Nasa says - BBC News

5 Sources

Earth's gravity will alter Apophis's path in 2029. Could this 'safe' flyby accidentally create a future impact threat?

If Apophis reveals our asteroid deflection methods are flawed, what is humanity's backup plan for a real threat?

With 'God of Chaos' approaching, how will science manage the line between global spectacle and potential public fear?

The 2029 Apophis Flyby: Unprecedented 20,000-Mile Encounter, Global Observation, and Planetary Defense Breakthroughs

Overview

On April 13, 2029, asteroid Apophis will make an exceptionally close flyby of Earth, passing just 20,000 miles above the surface. This rare event marks the closest approach ever predicted in advance for an asteroid of its size, offering a unique chance for observation and study. Thanks to extensive observations and advanced radar data from NASA and other agencies, scientists have definitively ruled out any risk of Apophis impacting Earth, not only in 2029 but also in later years. This flyby transforms a once-feared threat into an extraordinary scientific and public spectacle.

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