Data Golf Sees 92.7% Odds of a +1 British Open Cut Line

Q: Can new father Sam Burns transform his record-tying 62 into an emotional Open Championship win?

Yes. Sam Burns has given himself a real chance to turn his record-tying 62 into an emotional Open Championship victory, but he is far from a favorite with 36 holes still to play. Burns’ position is strong. After opening with a 73, he surged to 5-under with a bogey-free 62 at Royal Birkdale, finishing birdie-birdie-birdie and holing out from a bunker at the last. That left him three shots behind Lucas Herbert, who also shot 62 and leads at 8-under, with Burns tied among the main chasers heading into the weekend. The emotional angle is genuine. Burns nearly skipped the championship because his wife was due to give birth, but their daughter Belle arrived early on July 3, allowing him to travel after his wife encouraged him to play. That backdrop, combined with his recent runner-up finish at the U.S. Open, gives this run added weight. There is also evidence that his form is sustainable. Burns has four straight top-20 finishes and has been one of the sharper major performers this season, making the cut in all four majors. His short game and putting were exceptional in the 62, and those skills matter at a firm, fast Birkdale. The caution is that one great round does not guarantee a major title. Historically, a 62 in a men’s major has rarely been converted into a win, and weekend conditions are expected to get tougher. Burns has put himself squarely in contention; now he must prove he can back up the burst with two controlled rounds under major pressure.

1 articles · Updated · FanSided · Jul 17

Data Golf's live model put the 2026 Open Championship cut line at 1-over par with a 92.7% probability late in Friday's second round at Royal Birkdale.
Only 6.7% of simulations still pointed to even par and 0.7% to +2, as the late wave's scoring and relatively manageable Southport conditions pushed the number toward +1.
At that projection, Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka would survive on the number, while Tom Kim at +3 and Matt Fitzpatrick at +4 were set to miss the weekend.
The Open sends the top 70 and ties through 36 holes to the weekend, a more lenient major-championship cut than the U.S. Open's top 60 and ties or the Masters' top 50 and ties.
A +1 cut would match 2025 and 2021, though Royal Birkdale last produced a much tougher +5 cut in 2017; firmer, windier weekend weather could still harden scoring after the cut is set.