Hulbert Warns Prediction Markets Face Insider Trading and Whale Manipulation as 2028 Election Bets Spread
Updated
Updated · WGR550 · Jul 17
Hulbert Warns Prediction Markets Face Insider Trading and Whale Manipulation as 2028 Election Bets Spread
1 articles · Updated · WGR550 · Jul 17
Summary
Mark Hulbert said prediction markets are in a "Wild West" phase, arguing they should face rules similar to stock and bond markets as betting expands from sports to the 2028 U.S. election.
A recent Maine Senate market trade sharpened those concerns: before a POLITICO report damaged Democrat Graham Platner's campaign, someone bought contracts that suggested advance knowledge of the story.
Hulbert said insider trading is not unique to prediction markets, but large "whale" traders pose an added problem because they can move contract prices and distort what looks like crowd wisdom.
That weakens one of the industry's main claims—that diverse traders can forecast events better than polls—because prices may reflect concentrated money rather than broad information.
Hulbert said bets tied to government information could trigger legal and political fights, and he expects lawmakers to face pressure to tighten oversight.