Analyst Backs Mets at +118 Over Phillies as Nola Carries 6.61 ERA Into Return

Q: How did a pitcher's new arsenal defy all models predicting a high-scoring affair?

Christian Scott defied the high-scoring models because he was no longer the same pitcher those projections were largely built on. Pre-game forecasts leaned heavily on heat, wind, Citizens Bank Park’s homer-friendly profile, the Mets’ hot offense, and hard-contact indicators that suggested both starters were vulnerable. But Scott’s revamped arsenal changed the underlying matchup. After missing 2025 following Tommy John surgery, the Mets right-hander returned with a new pitch mix: he replaced his slider with a harder cutter, added a two-seam fastball, and strengthened his splitter, while also boosting his four-seam velocity to about 96.1 mph. Those changes materially improved his pitch quality. His Stuff+ reportedly rose from 100 in 2024 to 108 in 2026, and his sweeper gained more horizontal break, giving him a more deceptive east-west attack. The cutter was especially important against left-handed hitters, a weakness in his earlier profile. In 2024, lefties hit him hard; in 2026, that platoon problem had largely disappeared. That is where the models were vulnerable. Run-total projections and matchup systems rely heavily on historical data, recent trends, and expected contact quality. A pitcher who suddenly shows a meaningfully different arsenal can outperform those assumptions before the data fully catches up. Scott then validated that gap on the field, holding Philadelphia scoreless for 5 2/3 innings in the Mets’ 4-1 win, turning an expected slugfest into a low-scoring game.

3 articles · Updated · Covers · Jul 16

New York is tipped as a +118 moneyline underdog in Thursday’s first game after the All-Star break, with the pick fading Philadelphia at home.
Aaron Nola’s recent form drives the call: the Phillies right-hander has a 6.61 ERA over his last three starts, while Mets starter Christian Scott has posted a 3.38 ERA, 4.14 xERA and 1.13 WHIP in his last three.
The over 9.5 is also recommended because the Mets entered the break hot — 117 wRC+, .334 wOBA and .757 OPS over their previous 12 games — and both pitchers grade poorly in hard-contact and power matchups.
Philadelphia’s weather could add to scoring, with first-pitch temperatures near 93 degrees and 11 mph wind blowing out to left field at Citizens Bank Park.