Global Stocks Post Best Quarter Since 2020 With 14.7% Gain as Iran Ceasefire Sinks Oil
Updated
Updated · Facet · Jul 16
Global Stocks Post Best Quarter Since 2020 With 14.7% Gain as Iran Ceasefire Sinks Oil
3 articles · Updated · Facet · Jul 16
Summary
The Morningstar Global Markets index rose 14.7% in Q2 2026, marking global stocks’ strongest quarter since 2020, while the Morningstar Core U.S. bond index added 0.7%.
Oil’s drop from an April peak of $113 to under $70 by quarter-end helped drive the rally after Iran’s April 8 ceasefire and a June 17 memorandum eased supply fears and reopened Strait of Hormuz traffic.
U.S. earnings added a second major tailwind: 85% of companies beat profit estimates, profits grew 28.8% year over year, and tech surged nearly 32%, led more by AI infrastructure sellers than big spenders.
Economic data also improved, with U.S. job growth averaging 92,000 in the first half after roughly 10,000 a month in 2025, supporting stronger consumer spending and factory orders.
Markets still face a second-half test from inflation and Fed policy, with investors pricing 2-3 rate hikes after the 10-year Treasury yield climbed from 4.32% to 4.49% during the quarter.
A new Fed chief promises a 'regime change.' Can the current market rally survive his interest rate hikes?
With the Iran ceasefire now over, will the market's record second-quarter rally quickly reverse course?
As the AI boom strains global power grids, which industries are the hidden winners?
July 2026 Market Reversal: Geopolitical Tensions, Energy Supply Risks, and the Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire
Overview
In early July 2026, global markets sharply reversed as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire grew increasingly fragile and geopolitical tensions resurged. This led to heightened market volatility and a renewed sense of uncertainty among investors about global economic stability. Oil prices rose notably, and Treasury yields spiked, with the 10-year yield briefly nearing 4.60%. These shifts signaled that investors were bracing for more instability, highlighting how quickly market sentiment can change when geopolitical risks escalate. The events underscored the deep connection between fragile ceasefires, energy markets, and overall financial market volatility.