Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jul 16
US Rate Options Traders Dump Hike Bets After 2 Soft Inflation Reports
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jul 16

US Rate Options Traders Dump Hike Bets After 2 Soft Inflation Reports

3 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jul 16

Summary

  • Two benign inflation reports flipped the US bond market more bullish, pushing interest-rate options traders to unwind positions built for at least one Federal Reserve rate hike this year.
  • SOFR options trading has been dominated by put selling, a sign traders are backing away from wagers that the Fed’s policy rate will move higher.
  • Oil prices and European bond yields still pressured Treasuries this week, but that setback has not reversed the broader retreat from rate-hike positioning.

Insights

As traders defy Fed warnings, are they correctly predicting a policy pivot or heading for a major market collision?
With the AI boom fueling a resilient economy, can the Fed still control inflation with interest rates alone?