Jackson Suber Fires 65 to Lead Open by 1 as Rory McIlroy Stumbles to 72

Q: With favorites struggling, can a +35000 longshot actually win the Open Championship?

Yes. A +35000 longshot can realistically win the Open Championship, even if it remains unlikely. The strongest evidence is historical. The Open has produced some of golf’s biggest major upsets, including Ben Curtis at roughly 300-1 in 2003 and Todd Hamilton at 200-1 in 2004. Louis Oosthuizen also won at around 200-1 in 2010, while more recent Open winners such as Brian Harman, Shane Lowry and Zach Johnson were all well outside the favorite tier. Among the majors, The Open has a reputation for being especially vulnerable to surprise winners because links golf and weather can disrupt the usual hierarchy. That matters even more at Royal Birkdale, where firm conditions, wind, pot bunkers and a premium on precise ball-striking can reward specialists and expose stars. The current leaderboard reflects that volatility. Jackson Suber, who opened at +35000 and is making his Open debut, leads at 5-under after a 65. Dan Brown, another pre-tournament longshot, is one back. Meanwhile, several marquee names are already under pressure, with Justin Rose at +5 and Rory McIlroy over par early in his round. That does not make a longshot likely to finish the job. Four rounds at a major usually favor elite players, and contenders such as Collin Morikawa, Cameron Young and Bryson DeChambeau are still close enough to take control. But with favorites struggling and history showing The Open is unusually open to outsiders, a 350-1 winner is clearly possible.

3 articles · Updated · Fox News · Jul 16

Jackson Suber, a 26-year-old Open debutant, posted a 5-under 65 at Royal Birkdale to take a one-shot first-round lead over Daniel Brown and Sungjae Im.
McIlroy opened with a 2-over 72, seven shots back, after missing eight putts from inside 12 feet and playing Royal Birkdale's two par-5s in 2-over.
Suber reached the championship after a tied-fourth finish at the RBC Canadian Open and has four top-20 PGA Tour results since May, but has never previously contended in a major.
Scottie Scheffler stayed in range with a 68 despite saying he played better than that, while Bryson DeChambeau shot a 67 for his first under-par major round of 2026.
The early leaderboard mixed established stars with lesser-known names, setting up a volatile weekend if Suber can handle sleeping on a major lead for the first time.