July 29 is expected to bring another Fed hold at 3.5%-3.75%, with analysts seeing little chance of a hike after softer June inflation data.
Unchanged June core CPI shifted the balance inside the FOMC, easing pressure from a still-stable labor market that had kept a tightening option alive after the June 17 meeting.
Nine of 18 policymakers had projected at least one 2026 hike in the last dot plot, but minutes showed officials were split between fading inflation and a scenario requiring further firming.
Kevin Warsh is expected to avoid explicit forward guidance while keeping a hawkish tone, stressing inflation remains too high even as the labor market sits near the Fed's preferred range.
The outlook still points to no rate cuts through 2026, with 50 basis points of easing in 2027 only if core inflation keeps moving back toward the 2% target.