Natixis Strategists See AI Driving H2 2026 Markets as 91% Back US Equity Outperformance
Updated
Updated · Wealth Briefing · Jul 16
Natixis Strategists See AI Driving H2 2026 Markets as 91% Back US Equity Outperformance
3 articles · Updated · Wealth Briefing · Jul 16
Summary
91% of Natixis strategists say AI will be the main driver of second-half 2026 market performance, with 88% expecting the sector to accelerate and two-thirds favoring US equities.
33 strategists surveyed in June still flagged major risks around that view: 79% expect AI-driven volatility to persist and 85% see concentration risk as medium or high because six or seven companies dominate returns.
97% ranked inflation among the top second-half risks, up from 79% a year earlier, as the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz disruption pushed energy costs higher.
Recession fears eased sharply, with only 30% rating recession a medium or high risk versus 62% last year, while 70% now treat tariffs as a lasting feature of global trade.
42% expect US markets to deliver the best returns in H2 2026, up from 29% last year, while Europe drew 15%; strategists also favored large-caps, growth stocks and technology.
As AI's energy thirst triggers state-level bans, could environmental limits unexpectedly halt the tech market's surge?
As strategists abandon traditional portfolios for gold, is this the dawn of a new 'stagflation-era' investment strategy?
With defence stocks now labeled "sustainable," is ESG investing fundamentally rewriting its own rules for ethical capital?
Navigating H2 2026: AI-Driven Growth, Inflation Risks, and the New Era of Deglobalization
Overview
In the second half of 2026, Artificial Intelligence is firmly established as a foundational technology and is rapidly becoming essential infrastructure across industries. Nearly nine out of ten companies have integrated AI into at least one business function, extending its influence beyond core technology firms. This widespread adoption is driving value by enabling new use cases and improving operational efficiency in diverse sectors. The long-term potential of AI as a transformative market driver is widely recognized, with ongoing investment in generative and agentic AI, even as companies work to translate these advances into measurable performance gains and sustained financial returns.